Rise of the machines
Computers could achieve superhuman levels of intelligence in this century. Could they pose a threat to humanity?
Skynet's not calling the shots — yet.
(Facebook.com/Terminator: Salvation)
How smart are today's computers?They
can tackle increasingly complex tasks with an almost human-like
intelligence. Microsoft has developed an Xbox game console that can
assess a player's mood by analyzing his or her facial expressions, and
in 2011, IBM's Watson supercomputer won Jeopardy — a quiz show
that often requires contestants to interpret humorous plays on words.
These developments have brought us closer to the holy grail of computer
science: artificial intelligence, or a machine that's capable of
thinking for itself, rather than just respond to commands. But what
happens if computers achieve "superintelligence" — massively
outperforming humans not just in science and math but in artistic
creativity and even social skills? Nick Bostrom, director of the Future
of Humanity Institute at the University of Oxford, believes we could be
sleepwalking into a future in which computers are no longer obedient
tools but a dominant species with no interest in the survival of the
human race. "Once unsafe superintelligence is developed," Bostrom
warned, "we can't put it back in the bottle."
When will AI become a reality?
There's a 50 percent chance that we'll create a computer with human-level intelligence by 2050 and a 90 percent chance we will do so by 2075, according to a survey of AI experts carried out by Bostrom. The key to AI could be the human brain: If a machine can emulate the brain's neural networks, it might be capable of its own sentient thought. With that in mind, tech giants like Google are trying to develop their own "brains" — stacks of coordinated servers running highly advanced software. Meanwhile, Facebook co-founder Mark Zuckerberg has invested heavily in Vicarious, a San Francisco–based company that aims to replicate the neocortex, the part of the brain that governs vision and language and does math. Translate the neocortex into computer code, and "you have a computer that thinks like a person," said Vicarious co-founder Scott Phoenix. "Except it doesn't have to eat or sleep."
There's a 50 percent chance that we'll create a computer with human-level intelligence by 2050 and a 90 percent chance we will do so by 2075, according to a survey of AI experts carried out by Bostrom. The key to AI could be the human brain: If a machine can emulate the brain's neural networks, it might be capable of its own sentient thought. With that in mind, tech giants like Google are trying to develop their own "brains" — stacks of coordinated servers running highly advanced software. Meanwhile, Facebook co-founder Mark Zuckerberg has invested heavily in Vicarious, a San Francisco–based company that aims to replicate the neocortex, the part of the brain that governs vision and language and does math. Translate the neocortex into computer code, and "you have a computer that thinks like a person," said Vicarious co-founder Scott Phoenix. "Except it doesn't have to eat or sleep."
Why is that a threat?
No one knows what will happen when computers become smarter than their creators. Computer power has doubled every 18 months since 1956, and some AI experts believe that in the next century, computers will become smart enough to understand their own designs and improve upon them exponentially. The resulting intelligence gap between machines and people, Bostrom said, would be akin to the one between humans and insects. Computer superintelligence could be a boon for the human race, curing diseases like cancer and AIDS, solving problems that overwhelm humans, and performing work that would create new wealth and provide more leisure time. But superintelligence could also be a curse. READ MORE HERE
No one knows what will happen when computers become smarter than their creators. Computer power has doubled every 18 months since 1956, and some AI experts believe that in the next century, computers will become smart enough to understand their own designs and improve upon them exponentially. The resulting intelligence gap between machines and people, Bostrom said, would be akin to the one between humans and insects. Computer superintelligence could be a boon for the human race, curing diseases like cancer and AIDS, solving problems that overwhelm humans, and performing work that would create new wealth and provide more leisure time. But superintelligence could also be a curse. READ MORE HERE
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